Completed Sleeper results are locked into every run. Simulated wins are paired—one winner per future matchup.
10,000 reproducible seasons
Season
Lab
Odds with receipts.
Current records, verified lineup strength, and the remaining Sleeper schedule are played through the regular season and playoff bracket.
f12-schedule-monte-carlo-2026.2 · fixed seed · auditableCurrent pointAfter W3
Regular season14 weeks
Remaining/team11
Playoff field6
First-round byes2
ScheduleSleeper
Probability board
2026 outlook
| Manager | Record | Lineup baseline | Projected wins | Playoffs | Bye | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01Abel | 2-1 | 130.4 | 11.3 | 100.0% | 63.0% | 37.4% |
| 02Robbie | 3-0 | 127.9 | 12.0 | 100.0% | 74.4% | 29.0% |
| 03Rohan | 2-1 | 125.4 | 10.7 | 100.0% | 21.2% | 18.6% |
| 04Joe | 3-0 | 122.5 | 11.3 | 100.0% | 41.3% | 14.1% |
| 05Luka | 1-2 | 109.2 | 7.0 | 81.9% | 0.1% | 0.7% |
| 06Raffi | 2-1 | 102.5 | 6.8 | 71.8% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| 07Riley | 0-3 | 104.1 | 5.1 | 21.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 08Nooch | 1-2 | 98.1 | 5.0 | 15.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 09Tucc | 0-3 | 96.0 | 3.6 | 3.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 10Ben K | 1-2 | 90.9 | 3.8 | 2.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 11Ben S | 2-1 | 84.4 | 3.8 | 1.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 12Davo | 1-2 | 89.3 | 3.5 | 1.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
The same current-player quality gate used by rankings and advice supplies each team’s scoring baseline.
The playoff start, field size, first-round byes, and full bracket are taken from the Finest 12 configuration.
Read this first
A forecast, never a verdict.
The model uses the actual remaining Sleeper schedule, simulates paired weekly scores, applies points as a standings tiebreaker, and plays every playoff round. Injuries, lineup decisions, trades, and breaking roles can still move the board sharply.
Inspect the player inputs →